Back after rather a long time! So to anybody who might stumble upon these ramblings, hello again.
I thought I'd just offer my views on the forthcoming Ashes tour which will commence this week in Brisbane.
I do not share the common belief that this will be a comfortable win for England, in fact I make Australia favourites for the first time since the tour down under in 06/07, the last time they won a series.
Australia are better than that record suggests. In Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris they have two quite superb bowlers, and backed up by the ever reliable Peter Siddle and the improving Nathan Lyon as spinner their attack is more or less the equal of England's. They even have the advantage of a fifth bowler if Shane Watson is fit to bowl. England's attack is of course proven, and they might also have the fifth bowler option if they have the nerve to play Stokes as a number six bat, though that looks unlikely. So there is not much to choose between the tow sets of bowlers.
The batting line ups, again are hard to separate, although I would put England slightly ahead in this department. But England are playing away and in a country where they have seldom tasted success. A country in fact where very few teams have tasted success, Australia do not make a habit of losing test series at home.
This all depends on one crucial element of the game though. Can Australia develop a proper test match mentality? It's no use going off the pitch high fiving and looking pleased with yourself after a good day or even two good days-an old England habit. Test matches usually take four or five days to win, and often enough it is by getting out of trouble sometime during the match that a team can go on and win or draw the game. Australia too often lately have looked like folding once they are in real difficulties, as if they don't have the mental strength to see through a difficult patch and play the game from there.
If they can show this mentality Ausrtalia will probably win, home advantage probably being the key. If however they continue to play like a one day team when they are in trouble, they could get thumped.
I hope I am wrong, but I think Clarke and his team will have learnt from their bad recent mistakes in this particular regard. We'll all know soon enough!
